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#研究报告#半导体—— 年初至今国产设备中标数接近上年总量,看好半导体全年结构性行情

栏目:研究报告 作者:ZML 时间:2022-06-14 22:49:16

China Semiconductors年初至今国产设备中标数接近上年总量,看好半导体全年结构性行情Chinese equipment makers’ winning bids YTD outperform yoy; bullish on semiconductor structural growth投资要点/Investment Thesis投资要点/Investment Thesis本周行情概览:本周半导体行情跑输主要指数。本周申万半导体行业指数下跌1.76%,同期创业板指数上涨4.00%,

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China Semiconductors

年初至今国产设备中标数接近上年总量,看好半导体全年结构性行情

Chinese equipment makers’ winning bids YTD outperform yoy; bullish on semiconductor structural growth

投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
本周行情概览:本周半导体行情跑输主要指数。本周申万半导体行业指数下跌1.76%,同期创业板指数上涨4.00%,上证综指上涨2.80%,深证综指上涨3.50%,中小板指上涨4.67%,万得全A上涨3.01%。半导体行业指数跑输主要指数。
半导体各细分板块多有下跌。半导体细分板块中,半导体制造板块本周上涨0.1%,半导体材料板块本周下跌1.1%,封测板块本周下跌1.5%,半导体设备板块本周下跌3.0%,分立器件板块本周下跌3.9%,其他板块本周下跌4.0%,IC设计板块本周下跌4.1%。

Weekly review: semiconductors lag other major markets on segmental weakness
The SWS Semiconductor Index fell 1.76% last week, underperforming other major indices; the GEM Index rose 4.00%, the SSE Composite Index rose 2.80%, the SZSE Component Index rose 3.50%, the SME Index rose 4.67% and the Wind All A-shares rose 3.01%. Within the semiconductor segments, manufacturing rose 0.1% last week, materials fell 1.1%, packaging and testing fell 1.5%, equipment fell 3.0%, discrete devices fell 3.9%, other segments fell 4.0%, while IC design fell 4.1%.

我们坚定看好半导体全年的结构性行情,看好国产替代穿越周期。此前我们在报告《看好半导体国产替代穿越周期》2022.06.07中提出“中美贸易冲突背景下,半导体产业链各环节国产替代比率的提升将大幅增加我国半导体产业的供应链安全性,我们重点看好半导体国产替代穿越周期的机会,相关国产半导体厂商有望在全球半导体行业中体现出更强的成长性。”

Bullish about 2022E structural semiconductor growth on domestic substitution
In a previous report, Bullish on semiconductor domestic substitution through the cycle (7 June 2022), we said, “Amid the US-China trade conflict, a rising proportion of Chinese substitution in parts of the semiconductor supply chain would greatly enhance supply chain stability for China’s semiconductor industry. Hence we focus on semiconductor domestic replacement through-the-cycle opportunities and we expect stronger growth by Chinese manufacturers within the global context.”

我们复盘了5月半导体平均交货周期及5月国产半导体设备招中标情况,看好国产替代大趋势下,A股半导体设备材料的高成长潜力。

High growth prospects for equipment materials A-shares on domestic substitution
We reviewed May data on average semiconductor delivery cycles and successful bids for Chinese semiconductor equipment and we see high growth potential for semiconductor equipment materials A-shares amid domestic substitution.

1)5月全球芯片平均交货周期仍维持高位,达到创纪录的27.1周(约6.3个月),工业、汽车类芯片仍然坚挺。从上游环节来看,芯片交期维持高位,代工厂酝酿新一轮涨价潮;下游终端应用环节,智能手机、PC等消费类产品需求持续疲软,工业、汽车类的芯片仍然坚挺。从产品类别来看,模拟芯片、MCU及如0.18um以下工艺功率、工业、模拟器件仍受市场欢迎。

1) Global chips’ average delivery cycle remained high in May at a record 27.1 weeks (about 6.3 months), while industrial and automotive chips remained firm. In the upstream segment: chip delivery schedules remained full and foundries had a new round of price increases. Amid downstream terminal products: demand for consumer products like smartphones and PCs stayed sluggish, while industrial and automotive chips remained strong. Within products like analog chips and MCUs with processing power of 0.18um and below, industrial and analog devices remained popular.

2)年初至5月我国半导体设备中标数已接近上年总量,5月国产设备招中标类型再度丰富。
今年以来,北方华创可统计的中标数目已超过去年全年大半。我们统计2021年以来北方华创的历史中标数据显示,2021全年,北方华创共有161台设备中标,其中有42台刻蚀设备、28台薄膜沉积设备、24台热处理设备、21台清洗设备和21台真空设备等中标上海积塔、华虹半导等不同项目。2022年初以来已有112台设备中标各项目,已超过2021年全年161大半,我们预计今年国产设备中标数目将有望进一步提升。

2) In 5M22, the number of winning bids for semiconductor equipment in China was close to the previous year’s total, with robust winning bids in domestic categories once again. Since the beginning of this year, the number of bids won by NAURA has already exceeded more than half that in 2021. Our data for 2021 shows that it won bids for 161 equipment units, including 42 etching, 28 thin film deposition, 24 heat treatment, 21 cleaning and 21 units of vacuum equipment from Shanghai GTA and Huahong Semiconductor. In 2022 to date, it has been awarded 112 units of equipment in various projects, more than half of the 161 in 2021. We expect the number of domestic equipment winning bids this year to increase further.

上海积塔半导体临港二期项目5月扩产增能,带动国内半导体设备市场随之受益。据新华社报道,上海积塔半导体将新增固定资产投资额260亿元以上,国产替代内驱动力充足,国内设备厂商有望获得更多的验证机会。据我们统计,5月以来,华虹、积塔、燕东微电子、上海新微、华润微等都有进行设备招标。根据部分已披露中标信息,拓荆科技、北方华创(含北方华创磁电)、华海清科、中科飞测等都有多台设备中标。

Shanghai GTA’s Lingang Phase II project expanded production capacity in May, benefiting Chinese semiconductor equipment makers. According to Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai GTA will increase fixed asset investments by more than RMB26bn. This provides growth impetus for domestic substitution and brings more business validation opportunities for Chinese equipment manufacturers. According to our data, since May, Huahong, Shanghai GTA, Yandong Microelectronics, Advanced Micro, China Resources Microelectronics and others have bidded in equipment tenders. According to bidding disclosures, Tuojing Technology, NAURA (including NAURA Microelectronics), Hwatsing Technology and Skyverse won multiple equipment bids.

从设备中标情况来看,北方华创、华海清科、上海微电子等成功中标上海积塔特色工艺生产线项目,时代半导体也从北方华创和中微公司采购了清洗设备与刻蚀设备,国产设备比重较大。据我们对5月国产设备厂商最新中标情况的统计,华虹半导、时代电气、上海新微、上海积塔都引入了多台国产设备,其中拓荆科技和北方华创(含北方华创磁电)的设备中标量最大,华海清科有8台CMP设备中标上海积塔等项目,分设备看,薄膜沉积设备、检测设备、CMP设备、刻蚀设备等国产供应商中标数量较多。

Chinese manufacturers account for a large proportion of equipment bids won: NAURA, Hwatsing and Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment won bids for the Shanghai GTA special process production line project, and Times Semiconductor purchased cleaning equipment and etching equipment from NAURA and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China. According to our May data on the latest winning bids from Chinese equipment manufacturers, Huahong Semiconductor, CRRC Times Electric, Advanced Micro and Shanghai GTA have rolled out multiple domestic equipment, of which Tuojing Technology and NAURA (including NAURA Microelectronics) won bids for the largest equipment projects, with Hwatsing winning 8 sets of CMP equipment for Shanghai GTA and other projects. A segmental breakdown shows domestic suppliers won bigger bids in these equipment segments: thin film deposition, testing, CMP, etching and others.

扩产周期+国产替代,半导体设备材料板块成长逻辑始终明确。芯片短缺加速了产能扩张速度,根据SEMI预计,未来两年全球设备销售额增长趋势明确,国产替代大趋势下,A股半导体设备材料具备高成长潜力。近半年以来,全球主力晶圆代工厂和IDM公布了新一轮扩产计划。缺芯大环境下,为满足市场需求,各晶圆代工厂加大扩产力度,资本支出随之增加。目前,台积电、联电、格芯、中芯国际、世界先进、力积电这几家主要晶圆代工厂2022年资本支出合计达548~588亿美元。扩产周期上行,上游设备材料最先受益,根据SEMI预计,未来两年全球设备销售额增长趋势明确,在国产替代大趋势下,A股半导体设备材料有很大成长潜力。

Equipment material growth themes: expansion cycle and domestic substitution:
the chip shortage has accelerated capacity expansion and SEMI forecasts a clear growth trend in global equipment sales for the next two years. The semiconductor equipment materials industry has high growth potential under a general trend of domestic substitution. In the past six months, leading global foundries and IDMs have announced a new round of expansion plans. In order to fulfill market demand amid a general core shortage, wafer foundries are increasing efforts to expand and are spending more capex. Capex at major foundries like TSMC, UMC, GlobalFoundries, SMIC, VIS and Powerchip have collectively amounted to USD54.8bn-58.8bn in 2022. In the current expansion cycle uptrend, upstream equipment materials are the first to benefit and SEMI sees a clear sales growth trend for global equipment makers over the next two years. Under a domestic replacement trend, semiconductor equipment materials A-shares have great growth potential, in our view.


投资建议/Investment Ideas

建议关注:
1)半导体材料设备:有研新材/雅克科技/沪硅产业/华峰测控/北方华创/上海新阳/中微公司/精测电子/长川科技/鼎龙股份/拓荆科技/华海清科/盛美上海
2)IDM: 闻泰科技/三安光电/时代电气/士兰微/扬杰科技
3)晶圆代工:华虹半导体/中芯国际;
4)半导体设计:纳芯微/东微半导/海光信息/圣邦股份/思瑞浦/澜起科技/声光电科/晶晨股份/瑞芯微/中颖电子/斯达半导/宏微科技/新洁能/全志科技/恒玄科技/富瀚微/兆易创新/韦尔股份/卓胜微/晶丰明源/紫光国微/复旦微电/艾为电子/龙芯中科/普冉股份;

Stocks to watch:
Semiconductor material equipment makers
•Jiangsu Yoke Technology (002409 CH, BUY)
•National Silicon Industry Group (688126 CH, BUY; initiation)
•Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology (688200 CH, BUY)
•NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH, BUY)
•Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China (688012 CH, BUY)
•Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group (300567 CH, BUY)
•Hubei Dinglong (300054 CH, BUY)

Not-rated players
Grinm Advanced Materials (600206 CH), Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials (300236 CH), Hangzhou Changchuan Technology (300604 CH), Piotech (688072 CH), Hwatsing Technology (688120 CH), ACM Research (Shanghai) (688082 CH).

Integrated device manufacturers
•Wingtech Technology (600745 CH, BUY)
•Sanan Optoelectronics (600703 CH, BUY)
•Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric (688187 CH, BUY)
•Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics (600460 CH, BUY)
•Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology (300373 CH, BUY)

Wafer foundries
•Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK, ACCUMULATE)
•Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC, 0981 HK, BUY)

Semiconductor design
•Suzhou Novosense Microlectronics (688052 CH, BUY)
•Suzhou Oriental Semiconductor (688261 CH, BUY)
•SG Micro Corp (300661 CH, BUY)
•3Peak Incorporated (688536 CH, ACCUMULATE)
•Montage Technology (688008 CH, BUY)
•Amlogic (Shanghai) (688099 CH, BUY)
•Rockchip Electronics (603893 CH, BUY)
•Sino Wealth Electronic (300327 CH, BUY)
•Starpower Semiconductor (603290 CH, BUY)
•Allwinner Technology Co (300458 CH, BUY)
•GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing) (603986 CH, BUY)
•Will Semiconductor Shanghai (603501 CH, BUY)
•Maxscend Microelectronics Company (300782 CH, BUY)
•Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor (688368 CH, BUY)
•Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics (002049 CH, BUY)
•Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group (688385 CH, BUY)
•Shanghai Awinic Technology (688798 CH, BUY)
•Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) (688766 CH, BUY)

Not-rated players
Haiguang Information Technology (not listed), CETC Acoustic-Optic-Electronic Technology (600877 CH), Macmic Science & Technology (688711 CH), Wuxi NCE Power (605111 CH), Bestechnic (Shanghai) (688608 CH), Shanghai Fullhan Microelectronics (300613 CH) and Longxin Zhongke Technology (688047 CH).

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文章来自#赚美了#,一个专注高成长股投研的平台,www.zhuanmeile.com
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